The below is an extract from a more in depth document we send periodically to clients called “Market Outlook” in which our trading team analyses all the major world equity indexes, bonds, commodities and crypto.
As March begins it’s time to become more conservative as market environment remains complex—but full of opportunities for those who can stay calm, clear-headed, and flexible.
Equities: weakness or opportunity?
The Fear & Greed Index is deep in extreme fear territory (currently at 15). Historically, these levels have often marked solid tactical entry points into equities—especially in the U.S. However, we’re not in a strong expansion phase. Any rallies are more likely to be technical rebounds than signs of long-term momentum that can be used but with that in mind a smaller time and price objectives are mandatory.
Recommended strategy: tactical approach, avoid euphoria
Focus on select sectors like tech, energy, and gold miners if corrections occur. As usual in history, European markets tend to move last in an economic and financial cycle — and often more steeply—which may signal an upcoming phase shift. Nasdaq and SP500 are currently sitting at major resistance levels on a long term approach: either they break out, or risk a reversal.
Fixed income: not everything is off the table
Short-term U.S. bonds are appealing again due to a weaker dollar and attractive yields. In Europe, falling long-term bond prices might offer a chance to buy at a discount—but caution and multiple entries are advised.
Simplified Asset Allocation Guidance:
- Up to 65% in short-term bonds (EUR and USD)
- Up to 20% in equities (value or selective sectors, buying on dips)
- Up to 5% in Bitcoin & Blockchain (tactical only)
- Gold & silver: reduce or hold, or increase only on weakness
- Up to 30% cash reserves, ready to be deployed
- Keep existing short ETF positions on SP500 and DAX as hedges
Dollar & FX Trends
The dollar appears to be entering a new weakening phase, which could be a tactical tailwind for both bonds and emerging markets.
Bitcoin & Blockchain
After last year’s sharp rally, we’re now in a corrective phase. Caution is advised—treat it as a short-term, tactical allocation and consider multiple entries.
In summary
We’re at a “make or break” moment. Patience is a competitive advantage. What’s needed now is a tactical, flexible, and defensive approach—yet open to short-term sector opportunities. Stay alert to false signals and quick rallies: those who act with timing could benefit the most.
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